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Atlas — Online · Countries Scored 193 · Sources 67 · Methodology v19.7 Last Update checking…
Live Atlas — continuous OSINT, every country, every day
LIVE · Last updated 05:00 EST · v19.7 · 91 sources · 10 categories · per-event scoring · coverage 195/195 · STATIC — · ACTIVE — · · auto-updates every morning
◆ GLOBAL GEOPOLITICAL RISK INDEX · TODAY
63.4
HIGH
▲ +3.2 vs yesterday
CHAOS TERM · +2.1

State of the world today, scored 0–100. Higher = more geopolitical risk. Computed at 05:00 EST every day from 9 weighted components plus a bounded chaos term. See the math →

Critical
3
↑1 from yesterday
Elevated
12
+2 in 24h
Top mover (24h)
PAK
+12.4 score
Active alerts
7
across watchlists
◆ TODAY'S GGRI BREAKDOWN — 9 WEIGHTED COMPONENTS
Each bar shows component contribution to today's 63.4. Max possible at right.
C1 · Conflict & violence
15.6 /20
C2 · Political stability
8.4 /13
C3 · Economic stress
7.0 /13
C4 · Regulatory shock
5.5 /13
C5 · Sanctions & restrictions
8.1 /13
C6 · Energy & supply chain
5.0 /13
C7 · Cyber & info ops
6.6 /13
C8 · Anomaly & escalation
4.4 /13
C9 · State-affiliated signals
2.7 /9
LIVE · Updated checking…
Tracked195
Elevated12
Critical3
Loading Atlas map…
Initialising Leaflet · CartoDB tiles
Critical High Moderate Low
Click any country · Drag to pan · Scroll / pinch to zoom
T2 Reuters — Parliamentary vote postponed, Lagos · T1 OFAC — New designations, Venezuelan oil sector · T3 Bellingcat — Visual verification, convoy movements NE Ukraine · T2 AP — Refinery strike resumes, Gulf of Mexico · T4 X / verified-account — Unconfirmed report, Red Sea · T1 World Bank — Kenya GDP revision +0.4pp · T2 BBC — Election commission chairman resigns · T3 Al Jazeera — Aid convoy access, North Gaza · T1 SEC EDGAR — 8-K filing, supply disruption, Fortune 500 · T2 Bloomberg — Peso volatility, Mexico · T3 OCCRP — Cross-border asset tracing, Central Asia · T4 Telegram / channel — Road closures, Tripoli ·
Public preview. Atlas aggregates public OSINT for strategic context. Every data point carries an explicit source and credibility tier (see below). Military and maritime tracking uses public ADS-B Exchange and AIS feeds, aggregated at theater level — not individual-asset tracking. This is a research-and-briefing tool, not a tactical or targeting platform.
◆ MY WATCHLIST
— countries

Click any chip to open the country drill-down. Watchlist subscribers get a daily email when a watched country shifts by |Δ| ≥ 10. Add countries via the + Watch this country button on any country panel, or paste an ISO code into the Settings panel.

No countries on your watchlist yet.
Click any country on the map to open its drill-down, then tap + Watch this country. You can also bulk-edit via Settings → Watchlist.
Pro feature

Top Movers · 24-hour score deltas

See which countries moved most today — the 5 biggest GGRI increases and the 5 biggest decreases over the last 24 hours, with the events driving each move. Watchlist subscribers get a daily email when any watched country shifts by |Δ| ≥ 10.

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◆ TOP MOVERS · LAST 24 HOURS ● LIVE
Largest day-over-day GGRI score deltas. Watchlist subscribers get email alerts on any country with |Δ| ≥ 10. Today’s morning brief is frozen at the time it was sent — view this morning’s snapshot →
Pro feature

Country Comparison · Side-by-side radar

Compare up to 3 countries on a single ten-category radar chart (security, political, civil unrest, crime, economic, regulatory, infrastructure, cyber, health, advisory). See exactly where each country’s risk concentrates and how they overlap or diverge in real time.

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◆ COUNTRY COMPARISON
Pick 2-3 countries to compare across the ten v18 categories. Surfaces structural baseline (Static) + today's news pressure (Active) per category on one chart. Useful for "Russia vs Israel today — same headline number, where's the difference?"
No countries selected — add one above. (Up to 3.)
Pro feature

All Countries · Today — full 193-country table

See every country in the world scored on the GGRI today, sortable by score, region, tier, or 24-hour delta. One-click watchlist toggle on every row — get a daily alert any time a watched country shifts by |Δ| ≥ 10. Free tier shows aggregated tier counts only; Pro unlocks all 193 individual scores and the full evidence trail.

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◆ ALL COUNTRIES · TODAY
All 193 countries scored every day at 05:00 EST. Click any row for full component breakdown and event evidence. Watchlist (Pro tier) adds the country to your daily alert list.
# ISO Country Region Tier GGRI ▼ Δ 24h Watch
Showing — of 193 countries. Public preview shows aggregated tier counts; Pro subscribers see all 193 individual scores updated daily.
01 / How Watchtower Works — Four Continuous Loops

Ingest. Score. Verify. Publish. Every five minutes.

AtlasRisks runs a continuous pipeline across thousands of public sources, normalized into a shared schema, scored against a transparent algorithm, and verified against known-hallucination patterns before it lights up the map.

Loop 01 · Continuous

Ingest

GDELT, NewsAPI, RSS, ACLED, OFAC/EU/UK sanctions, World Bank/IMF, Reddit/Mastodon/Bluesky, public Telegram channels, ADS-B Exchange, AISHub/MarineTraffic. All public.

Loop 02 · Every event

Score

Political instability, security incidents, economic stress, social unrest, regulatory actions. Weighted sum with source-tier multiplier. Recency-decayed over 14-day half-life.

Loop 03 · Before publish

Verify

Cross-source corroboration check, image provenance (reverse + EXIF), LLM judge pass against structured ground truth, source-diversity weighting. Low-confidence items tagged.

Loop 04 · Every 5 min

Publish

Country scores, event feeds, military/maritime aggregates, source mix, and verification badges pushed to the map, the API, and subscribed briefings.

02 / Source Credibility — Explicit Tiers, Explicit Weights

Social media counts. Less than government filings.

Every source AtlasRisks ingests carries an explicit credibility tier. Scoring is weighted — a Tier 1 government filing moves the score more than a Tier 4 anonymous post. Nothing is silently dropped; credibility is visible on every event.

Tier
Category
Examples
Weight
T1
Primary & Authoritative
Government filings · regulatory announcements · World Bank / IMF / UN data · OFAC / EU / UK sanctions · SEC EDGAR · official statistical offices
1.00×
T2
Major Verified Media
Reuters · AP · AFP · BBC · FT · WSJ · NYT · Bloomberg · The Economist · Le Monde · Der Spiegel · Nikkei
0.75×
T3
Specialist & Independent
Bellingcat · OCCRP · ProPublica · The Intercept · Al Jazeera · Deutsche Welle · regional specialists · trade press · state-affiliated outlets (flagged)
0.50×
T4
Unverified / Low-Confidence
Single-source social posts · anonymous Telegram channels · uncurated aggregators · individual X accounts · forums
0.20×
03 / Hallucination Defense — Where AI-Generated or Stale Content Gets Caught

Six filters before an event moves the needle.

AI-generated fake events and recycled-image stories are the biggest failure mode in public OSINT. AtlasRisks' verification loop runs every event through a fixed set of checks before it's allowed to influence a country score.

Multi-source corroboration

Events require ≥ 2 independent Tier 1–3 sources before influencing a country's score. A story reported only by Tier 4 shows in the feed but is flagged "single-source · unverified" and has a weight floor of 0.20×.

Image provenance

Reverse image search against Google / Bing / TinEye; EXIF metadata inspection; first-seen-date indexing. Images surfaced from unrelated dates or locations are rejected and the parent story is demoted.

Aggregator collapse

Ten outlets citing the same original source count as one source, not ten. AtlasRisks chases citations back to the primary and scores against the root — so coverage volume doesn't amplify a single-point failure.

Ground-truth cross-check

An LLM judge pass cross-references claimed actors, dates, and locations against structured datasets (ACLED, UCDP, government records). Contradictions trigger a manual review queue rather than publishing.

AI-generation detection

Images are run through open-source synthesis detectors (SDXL/Midjourney fingerprints, face-swap artifacts). Flagged content is marked machine-generated, provenance unclear and held out of scoring.

Recency decay & staleness detection

An event's impact on the score decays exponentially with a 14-day half-life. Recycled content — old stories re-surfacing as new — is detected by URL history and content hashing, and gets downweighted on re-emergence.

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