Disclaimer.

1 · What the GGRI is — and isn't

The Global Geopolitical Risk Index ("GGRI") is a single 0–100 numerical indicator computed daily from a weighted combination of nine public-information components plus a small bounded random term. Full methodology is published at /methodology.html and is version-controlled.

The GGRI is a direction-of-risk indicator. It signals whether the global geopolitical risk environment is trending more or less acute on a given day. It is not:

• A prediction of any specific event, outcome, conflict, sanctions action, market move, cyber incident, or political development;
• A measure of risk to any specific person, organization, asset, location, route, or transaction;
• A substitute for trained intelligence analysis, security advance work, due diligence, or expert consultation;
• A complete picture of geopolitical risk — it captures what public OSINT can capture, which is necessarily incomplete.

2 · Not financial, legal, medical, security, or operational advice

Nothing on AtlasRisks — including the GGRI score, per-country breakdowns, Event Timelines, Watchlist alerts, the GGRI Daily brief, the Live Atlas dashboard, or any associated content — constitutes:

• Financial or investment advice. AtlasRisks is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or financial planner. Do not use the GGRI as the basis for investment, hedging, currency, or commodity decisions without independent professional advice. Past patterns do not predict future market behavior.
• Legal advice. AtlasRisks is not a law firm. Sanctions and regulatory entries surfaced in the C7 component are summaries of public actions and are not a substitute for compliance counsel.
• Medical advice. Public health items appearing in our content are journalistic summaries; consult medical professionals for health decisions including travel medicine.
• Security or operational advice. The GGRI is a country-level indicator. It is not a substitute for individual threat assessments, route surveys, advance work, executive protection planning, kidnap-and-ransom assessment, or any other operator-level diligence. Specific operations require specific professional review.
• Crisis management or emergency response advice. If you are managing an active incident, contact qualified crisis-management professionals and relevant authorities directly.

3 · Source data and credibility caveats

The GGRI ingests information from ~41 public OSINT sources across four credibility tiers (Tier 0 government primary, Tier 1 wire/authoritative, Tier 2 established media and think tanks, Tier 3 state-affiliated and explicitly flagged). The full source registry is published in our methodology document.

Source data may be incorrect, delayed, biased, or deliberately deceptive. Specifically:

• Public news reporting can contain errors, retractions, or partial information that revises over time. We do not independently fact-check upstream reporting.
• State-affiliated sources (RT, TASS, Xinhua, PressTV) are included with a tier-3 weighting (0.40) because their framing is operationally relevant — but their factual claims should be treated as the position of the affiliated state, not as verified fact. We flag these explicitly in the source registry.
• Geopolitical reporting is subject to active information operations and disinformation campaigns. While our pipeline includes verification heuristics (cross-source corroboration, tier-weighting, hallucination flagging), we cannot guarantee any individual signal is free of manipulation.
• Country attribution of headlines uses keyword and region-fallback heuristics. Some attributions will be imprecise.
• Where a source is unreachable from our pipeline (rate limits, geo-blocks, paywalls), the corresponding component score is computed from available alternatives. Anomalies are noted in the daily brief.

4 · Methodology and formula caveats

The current methodology is v1.1. Component weights, source-tier weights, and scoring rubrics are documented in the methodology page. They are subject to revision. Score time-series across methodology versions are not directly comparable — read tier transitions and trajectory, not absolute deltas across versions.

Per-component scoring uses a combination of:

• Quantitative signals (event counts, sentiment scores, market levels, CDS spreads, oil prices, AIS-derived disruptions);
• Qualitative assessments (expert-survey-anchored ratings on diplomatic posture, election-window risk, etc.);
• Structured datasets where available (ACLED for protests and conflict events, CISA KEV for cyber).

Component scores are bounded 0–100 and combined as a weighted sum. The model is intentionally simple — we trade explanatory transparency for predictive sophistication. There is no machine-learning forecasting layer in v1.1.

5 · The chaos term and pseudo-precision

The GGRI includes a bounded chaos term drawn each day from a cryptographically secure pseudo-random number generator (or, when reachable, the RANDOM.org atmospheric-noise true-RNG endpoint), in the range integer [−5, +5].

The chaos term exists to keep the index honest about its noise floor. A daily score that always returned, e.g., 73.5 would imply a precision the underlying signal does not support. The chaos draw injects a small, bounded, methodology-disclosed amount of randomness so that consumers do not over-interpret last-decimal score moves.

Operationally, this means:

• A 63.4 today and a 62.1 tomorrow does not mean risk fell by 1.3. The noise floor is wider than that.
• Read tier transitions (LOW → MODERATE → ELEVATED → HIGH → EXTREME), week-over-week trajectory, and top-three drivers — not last-decimal moves.
• The chaos provenance (CSPRNG vs RANDOM.org) is recorded in each day's output JSON.

6 · Acceptable-use boundaries

The GGRI and AtlasRisks content are not appropriate inputs for, and shall not be used as the determinative factor in:

• Individual immigration decisions, visa adjudications, asylum determinations, or border-control screening;
• Custody, parental-fitness, or family-court determinations;
• Employment screening, terminations, or denial of services to individuals;
• Insurance pricing or coverage decisions for individual policyholders;
• Targeting decisions of any kind, including kinetic, cyber, or commercial;
• Any decision affecting an individual's liberty, health, financial standing, or family integrity.

The GGRI is country-level and time-aggregated. It contains no individual data and is not designed to support individual-level adjudication.

7 · Timing, latency, and freshness

The GGRI is computed and emailed once per weekday at approximately 0500 EST (10:00 UTC). Source-data freshness within that window varies by source class:

• Government primary feeds (T0): typically ≤ 1 hour latency from publication to ingest.
• Wire and major media (T1, T2): typically ≤ 30 minutes.
• Think-tank reports and analyses (T2): hours to days.
• State-affiliated sources (T3): variable, often immediate.

Real-world events between daily runs are not reflected in that day's score. Subscribers who require sub-daily freshness should not rely on the GGRI alone for active situational awareness — use the Live Atlas dashboard, which refreshes every 30 minutes (Pro and above), and primary sources.

8 · Third-party content and links

The GGRI Daily and Live Atlas link to third-party sources (news outlets, government sites, think tanks, etc.). AtlasRisks does not control, endorse, or guarantee the accuracy of third-party content. Linked content is provided for evidentiary attribution and is governed by the third party's terms.

Map tiles on the Live Atlas are provided by CartoDB and OpenStreetMap. Map projections may include territorial depictions reflecting OSM defaults; these are technical defaults of the basemap provider and do not represent AtlasRisks's position on disputed boundaries.

9 · No warranty

The Service is provided "AS IS" and "AS AVAILABLE" without warranty of any kind, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, non-infringement, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or freedom from interruption. AtlasRisks does not warrant that the Service will meet your requirements or that the GGRI score will be accurate, reliable, or suitable for any particular use.

10 · Limitation of liability

To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law, AtlasRisks, its operator (David Ramirez, sole proprietor), and any of its agents or contractors shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special, exemplary, or punitive damages — including without limitation damages for lost profits, lost data, business interruption, security incidents, decisions made in reliance on the GGRI, or harm arising from third-party source content — even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Our aggregate liability for any claim arising out of or relating to the Service shall not exceed the fees paid by the claimant to AtlasRisks in the twelve (12) months preceding the claim.

Some jurisdictions do not allow the exclusion or limitation of certain damages; in such jurisdictions our liability is limited to the maximum extent permitted by law.

11 · Attribution and republication

Subscribers may quote, cite, and reference the GGRI in internal briefings, client deliverables (when relevant to your work and properly attributed), and academic research. Required attribution: "Source: AtlasRisks GGRI, [date]."

The following are not permitted without a written license:

• Republication of the GGRI score or daily brief in publicly distributed media;
• Resale, sublicense, or redistribution of GGRI data to non-subscribers;
• Use of the GGRI as a feed into a competing risk-rating product;
• Reverse-engineering of the methodology to clone the score for commercial use;
• Bulk scraping of the dashboard, API, or daily emails beyond the rate limits applicable to your tier.

Enterprise tier includes redistribution rights for use within the licensee's organization. Contact legal@atlasrisks.com for licensing.

12 · Changes to the formula and weights

Component weights, source-tier weights, source pool, and scoring rubrics are versioned (current: v1.1). Material changes are announced via the methodology page changelog and to active subscribers. Score time-series across versions are not directly comparable; subscribers should be aware that a methodology bump can produce a step-change in score independent of any change in underlying conditions.

Backtests and historical comparisons are performed on the methodology version current at the time of the run, unless explicitly versioned otherwise.

13 · Regulatory note

AtlasRisks is not registered as an investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, the U.K. Financial Services and Markets Act 2000, the EU MiFID II framework, or any analogous regulation. We are not a credit-rating agency under Regulation (EC) 1060/2009 or the SEC's regulation of NRSROs. The GGRI is not a credit rating, sovereign risk rating, or regulatory rating of any kind.

If you are operating in a regulated industry (banking, insurance, asset management, pensions, etc.) and considering use of the GGRI as a regulatory input, you should obtain compliance counsel before doing so.

14 · Contact for clarifications

For questions about this disclaimer or the appropriate use of GGRI data:

• General: hello@atlasrisks.com
• Legal: legal@atlasrisks.com
• Methodology questions: methodology@atlasrisks.com

— AtlasRisks Disclaimer v1.0 · 2026-05-06