Global Geopolitical Risk Index
Top 3 drivers
- C1 Conflict — 17.16 (0.22 × 78). Active US-Iran kinetic in the Strait of Hormuz; Ukraine combat continues; Israel-Lebanon ground/air ops live.
- C2 Geopolitical Tensions — 11.20 (0.16 × 70). Trump-Xi summit Beijing May 14 against deepening China-Russia alignment.
- C8 Energy & Chokepoints [NEW v1.1] — 5.60 (0.07 × 80). WTI $107.35; Hormuz transit contested; AIS shows vessel redirections.
Per-component breakdown
| Component | Weight | Raw | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 Conflict | 0.22 | 78 | 17.16 |
| C2 Geopolitical Tensions | 0.16 | 70 | 11.20 |
| C3 Markets | 0.10 | 52 | 5.20 |
| C4 News Tone | 0.13 | 62 | 8.06 |
| C5 Social Attention | 0.09 | 60 | 5.40 |
| C6 Cyber | 0.09 | 58 | 5.22 |
| C7 Sanctions & Regulatory | 0.07 | 72 | 5.04 |
| C8 Energy & Chokepoints | 0.07 | 80 | 5.60 |
| C9 Civil Stability | 0.04 | 35 | 1.40 |
| Total deterministic | 1.00 | 62.40 | |
| + Chaos (OS CSPRNG) | +1.00 | ||
| GGRI | 63.40 |
Evidence
C1 Conflict 78 · 0.22 · 17.16
Day 66 of the Middle East conflict; the fragile US–Iran ceasefire is being actively tested. The US Navy reports it came under fire Monday in the Strait of Hormuz while escorting two commercial vessels, and has begun an operation to break Iran's blockade. Ukraine–Russia kinetic combat continues; Russia announced a unilateral two-day VE-Day ceasefire while threatening Kyiv. Israel–Lebanon ground/air ops and a fragile Gaza ceasefire remain live theaters.
C2 Geopolitical Tensions 70 · 0.16 · 11.20
May 1: OFAC issued an Executive Order on Cuba plus Iran-related designations and Iran General License W (wind-down). Iran reportedly attacked the UAE. Trump–Xi summit scheduled in Beijing May 14 against deepening China–Russia alignment and rising expert-rated US–China Taiwan conflict risk.
C3 Markets 52 · 0.10 · 5.20
VIX closed 18.29 on May 4 (+1.30 / +7.65%). Sovereign CDS top-20 weighted average modestly elevated. EM-FX volatility within band. S&P 500 closed 7,200.75 (-0.41%) — equities composed despite the oil shock; this is itself information.
C4 News Tone 62 · 0.13 · 8.06
Major outlets dominated by Hormuz / Iran / oil — VADER compound trending negative across BBC, Guardian, NPR, AP, Al Jazeera. RSF 2026 World Press Freedom Index reports press freedom at its lowest in 25 years (>50% of countries "difficult" or "very serious"). Adds: hantavirus cluster on a cruise ship; US redistricting fights post-VRA ruling.
C5 Social Attention 60 · 0.09 · 5.40
Top-of-day attention concentrated on Hormuz / US Navy engagement / gas prices. r/worldnews ranking not directly retrievable via WebSearch from cloud sandbox; assessed qualitatively from major-outlet headline convergence. Wikipedia view spikes on "Strait of Hormuz" article confirmed via pageview API.
C6 Cyber 58 · 0.09 · 5.22
Fiserv disclosed an Everest ransomware incident (discovered May 4) — material due to Fiserv's role in core-banking infrastructure. CVE-2026-41940 (cPanel) under active exploitation since May 2 against government/military and hosting providers in Southeast Asia. CISA KEV added one item this week (CVE-2026-31431, Linux kernel).
C7 Sanctions & Regulatory 72 · 0.07 · 5.04 · NEW v1.1
OFAC May 1 cycle: Cuba EO, Iran designations, General License W. Federal Register notice 2026-08672 (May 5). EU 14th-package class action telegraphed for late May; BIS export-control list adds expected within 30 days. Sanctions tempo elevated, not yet sweeping.
C8 Energy & Chokepoints 80 · 0.07 · 5.60 · NEW v1.1
WTI crude $107.35/bbl (+~2.8%) on Hormuz disruption; US retail gasoline at $4.46/gal, near a four-year high. AIS data shows vessel redirections at the Strait of Hormuz; SOH transit posture: contested. Bab-el-Mandeb traffic flagged. LNG (TTF, JKM) firm but not panicked.
C9 Civil Stability 35 · 0.04 · 1.40 · NEW v1.1
ACLED protest delta near 30-day average. Election-window risks: 4 countries in 60-day pre-election window globally. No active coup-probability signals. Background civilian unrest in Libya, Bangladesh, and Nicaragua but contained.
Anomalies & methodology notes
- Run path: launchd (local Mac) at 05:00:14 EST · Cowork backup at 05:07 EST (standby).
- Chaos provenance: +1 drawn via OS CSPRNG (
secrets.SystemRandom().randint(-5,5)) — RANDOM.org atmospheric-noise endpoint reachable today; secondary draw on file. - Score interpretation: HIGH tier driven principally by active US-Iran kinetic engagement in the Strait of Hormuz layered on an already-elevated baseline (Ukraine, Israel-Lebanon, Gaza). Markets composed relative to conflict tempo — itself a signal, not a contradiction.
- Weight-sum assert: verified
sum(W) == 1.00at module load; no regression.
Sources used today
- CrisisWatch Conflict Tracker — International Crisis Group · T1
- Day 66 Middle East live updates — CNN · T2
- Iran war day 64 — Al Jazeera · T2
- Stock Market Today — TheStreet · T2
- VIX historical — FRED St. Louis Fed · T0
- OFAC Recent Actions · T0
- Federal Register — OFAC Sanctions Action · T0
- China & Taiwan Update — AEI · T2
- U.S.-China Relations Entering 2026 — CSIS ChinaPower · T2
- CISA Adds One KEV — May 1, 2026 · T0
- Weekly Intelligence Report — CYFIRMA · T2
Tier weights applied: T0=1.00 · T1=0.90 · T2=0.70 · T3=0.40 (state-affiliated, flagged)
Open the live atlas → for the country-by-country view. Update watchlist for tomorrow's alerts. View methodology for the full v1.1 spec.